I’ve been going on long walks. No headphones, no music, no podcasts. Just me and nature.
I will ask myself a question and then let myself ponder the answer - just like I mentioned in the recent newsletter on combinatory play.
Of course, this walk-n-think generates tasks or insights I don’t want to forget. I’ve tried just holding things in my memory, but that doesn’t work well for two reasons.
1) I forget by the time I get home. 2) I stop thinking about anything new so that I don’t forget (to prevent, like Homer Simpson said, “Every time I learn something new it pushes some old stuff out of my brain.”)
To solve that, I now take my phone with me, but keep it in my pocket. If an idea comes up, I use two apps (Obsidian and Todoist) and one method of input (speaking) to get it all down.
I’ve used those two apps forever, but it’s the new speech-to-text stuff that makes this process really work.
On the bottom left corner of my Android phone there’s a microphone button. Pressing that turns my speech into text input.
If I think of a task, I quickly open Todoist, say something quickly, and close. Done. Task entered.
If something long form - like a business idea or, true story, the beginnings of this newsletter intro - I’ll open up a new note in Obsidian and just start talking.
The speech to text is quite accurate, so I don’t have to go back to fix many errors.
It cuts down on the time I’ve got my phone out.
And it helps me not to drop as many thoughts/ideas as I’d been dropping before.
When I get home, I have a little post-processing to do. In Todoist I move things to the right project and add metadata. In Obsidian I move text around, format, or link to other notes.
Outside of the cost of a phone, this is all free! The only thing it requires is the interest and desire to give it a shot.
Do you have any method for keeping track of ideas while you’re out walking? Share them with me at heykev@kevinnoble.xyz.
Have a great week!
Kevin
A Quote
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“Life should not be a journey to the grave,” said Hunter S. Thompson, “with the intention of arriving safely in a pretty and well preserved body, but rather to skid in broadside in a cloud of smoke, thoroughly used up, totally worn out, and loudly proclaiming, ‘Wow! What a ride!’”
— Joe De Sena in "Spartan Up!"
Three Things
1 - 🦻 Apple Airpods as Hearing Aids - Apple announced that their Airpods Pro can test for hearing loss and also operate as hearing aids for the hearing impaired. It boost sound around you, based on the hearing test, so you can participate in the world around you. I’m curious how they’ll do in a restaurant setting; it can be tough to discern the waiter who you’d want boosted, and the ambient noise which you would not.
2 - 🏦 Business Marketplace - BizScout - Are you looking to buy a business, or just curious what buying a business is like? This new business search marketplace just launched if you want to check out. You could own an ice cream shop for $125K, a plumbing company for $1.4M, or a concrete contractor for $12.5M.
3 - 🥗 Taste and Technique by Naomi Pomeroy - This cookbook has recipes and techniques that are challenging, but not weird. It’s not food as art. It’s food for eating. A few years ago I took a “creative refresh” day and made the Bête Noire dessert. The Porcini Braised Chicken Thighs inspired me to incorporate things on other meals. If you’re looking for something to push the envelope on your cooking, try it out!
Deeper Dive on Controlling the Null Hypothesis
In the United States justice system there’s the idea that you’re innocent until proven guilty. This has large effects on how our system is run. Can you imagine if it where the opposite?!
In sports, when there’s a review of a play, the call on the field is assumed to be right. The call is only overturned if there is sufficient evidence to the contrary.
I’d even argue that when Gandalf says he’s not late 🧙, he’s doing the same thing! The default assumption is that Gandalf arrives “precisely when he means to.”
There’s power in controlling the null hypothesis!
I’m using the term “null hypothesis” somewhat loosely since I’m taking it out of the pure scientific realm; I simply mean the default assumption.
Being able to set the null hypothesis - the default assumption other people have - is very powerful.
It is happening all around us, and it has wide-ranging implications. I’m sharing this idea with you today so you can either defend against it, or use it to help achieve your own goals.
Implications
Controlling the null hypothesis is important because it influences the outcome and the amount of energy required to get that outcome.
It influences the outcome because of how humans make decisions. We don’t calmly gather information on all sides of something and then determine a rational conclusion. We make snap judgments and then evolve our conclusions (or not!) as new information becomes available.
This is why we talk about the importance of first impressions.
Controlling the null hypothesis sets the default judgment.
And once that default judgment is set, it takes a lot more energy to change it than to have it stay the same.
Brains can change their opinions, but it takes work.
Why is it Hard to Change Minds?
Why is it hard to change someone’s mind once they have a null hypothesis?
It’s always helpful to explore the world of psychology and biases to see what’s going on.
Anchoring Effect - This is a human tendency where decisions are overly influenced by an initial reference point (the anchor), even if that reference point is irrelevant or arbitrary. A null hypothesis becomes an anchor for all future thinking.
Confirmation Bias - This is our tendency to favor information that confirms our existing beliefs. We may even seek out, interpret, and recall information in ways that confirms the existing belief. When a null hypothesis is set, confirmation bias helps keep it there.
Halo Effect and Horn Effect - This is the tendency to have your opinion on something overly influenced by a single trait. For example, assuming an attractive person is also intelligent, or that a disheveled person is also lazy. These effects can set null hypotheses subconsciously.
Authority Bias - This is the tendency for people to attribute greater credibility and importance to the opinions of authority figures. If a person in authority sets the null hypothesis, it’s more likely to be believed by others.
Here's a leader on high contemplating their well-respected opinion on matters.
Other Examples
Here are two other examples of where I’ve noticed controlling the null hypothesis can come into play.
Hiring
How do you and your company approach hiring?
Do you assume the candidate is qualified, and you only decline if you find negative evidence in the hiring process? Or, do you assume the candidate is unqualified, and only hire if you find an abundance of evidence to the contrary in the hiring process?
Often, the null hypothesis isn’t said explicitly, but it occurs in the unconscious mindset of different panelists. Multiple interview panelists will approach this from different directions. Having this operate below consciousness, combined with the mix of perspectives, can cause confusion when everyone gets together to make a final assessment.
Lots of bad hiring comes from assuming a person is qualified.
You’ll often hear hiring managers or panelists say they didn’t find anything wrong with a candidate, so they default to yes and bring them in.
My advice is to set the null hypothesis as unqualified and use the interviews to gather the evidence you need to say yes. There’s a possibility that you’d miss out on a great candidate, but that’s much better than bringing someone unfit onto the team.
"Between the halo effect and our default assumption that a person is qualified, you should have an easy time getting a job here!"
Performance Assessments
When you go into the annual review process, where is the null hypothesis set?
Is it that an individual is meeting expectations, and it’s incumbent on the manager to bring evidence to the contrary?
Or is it that an individual is not meeting expectations, and the employee has to bring evidence of their great performance?
I’ve seen it both ways, and, like hiring, I’ve seen frustration and confusion when each party has their own null hypothesis.
For example, I know of an employee who received a poor assessment and challenged the manager to provide evidence that they were under-performing, putting the manager on the defensive. The manager reversed it and asked for evidence that the employee was performing to expectations. The two parties had different null hypotheses and if affected their interaction.
It’s safer for both the manager and employee to have the null hypothesis be that the employee is not meeting expectations. As an employee, you’ll be more thorough in thinking through your self-evaluation, which is protective.
As a manager, this also protects you against false positives (giving a rating higher than deserved). It’s important to be careful here, though! You can’t just decide to set the default here without putting a few other practices in place.
Make sure you’re setting clear expectations well in advance.
Lay out expectations for what you want out of the evaluation process. You also need to be clear and give evaluations throughout the year so that there are no surprises at the end.
And don’t bring the hammer down at the first review. You’ve got to ease people into a new process, if this represents a change.
Ways to Counteract It
If you find yourself on the receiving end null hypothesis going against you or the path you want, there are some things you can try to counteract it.
All tactics are going toward eroding or replacing the null hypothesis with a different one.
Reframe Early
An ounce of prevention is worth a pound of cure. It takes some time before a null hypothesis really gets set, so if you start hearing one that you want to change, get ahead of it.
If your manager insinuates poor performance, start sharing the opposite perspective.
“My recent projects have been successful, achieving [x], [y], and [z]. Can we talk about how to build on those strengths and that momentum?”
Add Context
In OKRs or other goal setting mechanisms, the null hypothesis is often that the team will hit the goal, or at least the 0.7. Never mind that OKRs are supposed to be designed to be a stretch!
If a team misses, that null hypothesis of success invites a negative assessment of the team.
Leaders tend to forget about all the headwinds or why that goal is a stretch. Remind them!
If a project or program is being judged harshly, add context. “Given this project’s complexity, we all knew we’d have headwinds like [a], [b], and [c]. We successfully mitigated [a], but customer behavior accelerated in a negative direction and we had those anticipated issues on [b] and [c].”
You’re reminding leaders of the known risks, that you were aware of them, were successful in some, but that some things are ultimately outside of your control. You’re alerting early. All of that is positive and adds context if a leader had a null hypothesis of slam-dunk success.
Broadcast Your Accomplishments
I’m not much of a “horn tooter.”
I tend to put my head down, do the work, and don’t make a big deal out of it. In doing so, I’m ignoring the power of the null hypothesis. I’m leaving it open for someone else to establish a default judgment - one that goes against me.
I shouldn’t assume that people walk around with the null hypothesis that “Kevin is impactful and does great, high quality work.” While that may be my brand with people I’ve worked with for a long time, new people won’t know me.
I’m not alone in this; lack of horn tooting has been an issue for others in history. In Rome, Caesar wrote letters about his conquests in Africa back home to the Senate. His peer, Pompey, was having equal success, but did not write similar letters.
What do you think the Senate thought of both leaders? Did they wait until both men got home, tallied up their achievements, and made a decision on who was the better leader?
No, Caesar, by writing letters, was controlling the null hypothesis. The senate believed Caesar was the more effective general, independent of their actual accomplishments.
You need to do the same thing with your own work. For all the cognitive psychology reasons shared earlier, it’s important that you take the time to share your accomplishments with others.
I'm no expert, but I think handing out flyers to everyone would certainly influence their opinion of you!
Call to Action
Be on the lookout for null hypotheses. They’re happening all around you; start to notice them. In any interaction, ask yourself what you and others are considering as the default assumption.
Are you abdicating control of the null hypothesis anywhere?
Do you need to get ahead of your own brand by broadcasting your accomplishments?
I’d love to hear your thoughts on this topic. Email me back at heykev@kevinnoble.xyz and let me know what you think!
Kevin 😃
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